Variance is a bitch
May 14, 2009 at 10:12 am
I play poker, specifically No Limit Texas Hold’em. It’s been my hobby activity and minor passion for a few years now. Last night I was playing in my weekly World Tavern Poker league game at Durham Pizza and ran into the brick wall of variance at the final table. My tournament game is somewhat spotty. I tend to either go out early or run deep and make the final table. The first tourney last night saw me walking out the door less than 45 minutes after starting, but the second went much better. I stayed alive by playing tight, aggressive poker and avoiding playing marginal hands that have been getting me in trouble lately.
I went into the final table of eight players in probably 5th or 6th position chip-wise and continued playing tight, knowing that the blinds would force action on the other short stacks. Sure enough, we were soon down to seven players, then a three-way allin hand took out two more and we were five-handed. I had chipped up somewhat during this and was now a mid-size stack and the short stack was the current points leader, but he was very short stacked after loosing a big hand and had to put half his remaining stack in as the big blind. He pushed the rest in with a couple low cards against one caller, but didn’t hit and we were down to four-handed.
Very soon after, we had another all-in including the chip leader, resulting in an elimination and we were down to three. At this point I went on a rush, winning the next 4 or 5 hands by either raising preflop or limping in and betting the flop. The blinds were high and I more than doubled my stack, making me the chip leader.
Then I hit a brick wall, twice.
I min-raised from the small blind with K7 offsuit after the button folded. The big blind called and the flop came 2-7-9 rainbow. I had less than the pot left in my stack so I went all in. The big blind tanked for a coupe minutes and then called and turned over A6 offsuit. The turn was a 6, giving him two live cards again, and the river was a sickening Ace, making him two pair. I was 85% to win that hand and lost about 80% of my chips on it.
The very next hand I’ve got the button and deal myself pocket Aces! I limp in, the small blind folded, and the big blind went all-in. He had just gotten a phone call and it was sounding like he needed to leave. I immediately called his all-in and he showed K5 offsuit. He had me covered so I refunded his extra chips and ran out the board: X-X-X-5-K. Sure enough, my aces got cracked with another runner-runner hand on the turn and river. Another 90% favored hand beaten into the ground.
Variance is a bitch.
Still, I made third place so I can’t argue too much.
Categories: Poker
